The chances that the storm will make landfall in the U.S. have increased slightly after the path shifted south.

For now, most reliable computer models that meteorologists use show Erin curving away from the United States, spinning off the East Coast later in August.

Tropical Storm Erin has formed on a path toward the Caribbean and is expected to strengthen to a hurricane later in the week as it passes by Puerto Rico. Most models forecast the storm turning upward into the Atlantic Ocean, but a few see the storm continuing onward to the U.S. mainland.