Middle East, oil
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Oil surges
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Since inflation in the UK has fallen from its extreme high in 2022, the Bank has steadily decreased its interest rate over the past year, easing the pressure on people with a mortgage to pay.
If prices go up, Fed officials may be inclined to raise its benchmark rate, raising borrowing costs for businesses and consumers. That could lead to businesses to cut jobs, particularly in the high-growth tech sector, and force Americans to pull back on spending, which drives more than 70% of economic activity in the U.S.
The Indian rupee is expected to slip past 86 to the U.S. dollar at the open on Friday, hit by surging oil prices and sliding risk assets after Israel attacked targets in Iran.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly demanded the Federal Reserve slash interest rates. But Fed officials have stood pat, waiting to see how his administration’s sweeping policy changes affect the economy first.
Entering the meeting, markets are pricing two interest rate cuts from the Fed in 2025, in line with the central bank's median dot plot projection from March. But since then, there have been significant changes to tariff policy, which will put any updates to the Fed's outlook in particular focus.
Oil prices settled slightly lower on Thursday as traders booked profits from a 4% rally in the prior session, driven by concerns that worsening tensions in the Middle East could cause supply disruptions.
President Donald Trump will travel to Alberta, Canada, later today to participate in the Group of Seven meeting amid a widening conflict between Israel and Iran and his ongoing trade war.
The US ordered some staff to leave its embassy in Baghdad, and restricted government employees and family members in Israel from traveling outside major cities like Tel Aviv. Around the same time, risk warnings from naval forces were issued to vessels operating in and around the Persian Gulf,