Even before the first phase is completed, the fragile cease-fire agreement that has paused 15 months of war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas faces increasingly long odds of lasting or even reaching phase two.

This is the second ceasefire in 15 months of the deadliest and most destructive war between Israel and Hamas, which controls Gaza. The first occurred over a year ago and lasted a week. The current ceasefire is longer and holds the potential to end the war,